Yogi Berra once said, “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Philip Tetlock joins Vasant Dhar in episode 31 of Brave New World to discuss what superforecasters do consistently well — and how we can improve our judgement and decision-making.
Useful resources:
1. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
2. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? — Philip Tetlock.
3. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement — Episode 21 of Brave New World.
4. Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer — Duncan Watts.
5. The Hedgehog and the Fox — Isiah Berlin.
6. What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters? — Christopher W Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel T Maxwell, Yunzi Lu, Barbara A.Mellers and Philip E.Tetlock.
7. Terry Odean on How to Think about Investing — Episode 23 of Brave New World.
8. Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions — Ezra Karger, Joshua Monrad, Barb Mellers and Philip Tetlock.
9. The Signal and the Noise — Nate Silver.
10. FiveThirtyEight.
1. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction — Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner.
2. Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? — Philip Tetlock.
3. Daniel Kahneman on How Noise Hampers Judgement — Episode 21 of Brave New World.
4. Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer — Duncan Watts.
5. The Hedgehog and the Fox — Isiah Berlin.
6. What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters? — Christopher W Karvetski, Carolyn Meinel, Daniel T Maxwell, Yunzi Lu, Barbara A.Mellers and Philip E.Tetlock.
7. Terry Odean on How to Think about Investing — Episode 23 of Brave New World.
8. Reciprocal Scoring: A Method for Forecasting Unanswerable Questions — Ezra Karger, Joshua Monrad, Barb Mellers and Philip Tetlock.
9. The Signal and the Noise — Nate Silver.
10. FiveThirtyEight.